When I have to teach it, I always have trouble explaining probability in broad terms. Yes, I understand how to calculate probability, but I think it rests on some assumptions that I struggle to wrap my mind around. For example, randomness. In a random universe, if you flip a coin, there’s a 50/50 chance that it comes down heads/tails. But in the real universe, the force you put into the coin to toss it plus the environmental factors affecting it determine its path and its landing position. You might not have all that information when you throw the coin, but if you did, you could predict how it would land. So is it really random? Is it really 50/50?
Entropy is easier for me to grapple with. Entropy is a physics term for the degree to which important information is not available - but as a shorthand, it’s a measure of chaos and unpredictability. It’s an admission that - no, this is not random, BUT we have to treat it like random because we don’t know what’s going on and to our perception it seems random.
When you were conceived, actions were put into motion that ultimately determined your entire identity and existence. The traits you inherited, the way you would develop, the environment you would be born into - with perfect information these might be predicted, but for our understanding there were a billion billion billion coin flips and it was incredibly unlikely that they would all land as YOU. But they did, and here you are.
And then, when you started to exist, another random thing happened. You got a name. A simple random string of letters to try to match your infinitely complex random string of DNA, while knowing nothing about you.
When you get a puppy, getting it to learn its name is a big part of the training. Dogs don’t understand what a “name” is - they respond to sounds with trained behaviors. When you say “sit”, a trained dog might sit. When you say “down” a trained dog might lie down. When you say “treat” or “walk”, an untrained dog might go berserk and get very excited (though technically this is also training). When you say a dog’s name, it is - from the perspective of a dog - a command that means “look at whoever just said this word”. (It’s kind of like that for people, too.)
But then, later on, you might be in a dog park, and you might call out to your dog, but a different dog looks up. What are the odds, in a universe of vastly incalculable probabilities, that this other dog has the same name as yours? Pretty high if you name your dog something like “Bandit” or “Otis”. Pretty low if you name your dog “Danny DeVito’s Toupee” (though really that’s a fitting name for a lot of dogs).
A Google search of your name is a little like shouting your name in a massive dog park, and everyone with the same name comes running. And it turns out that Adam Segal is not a unique name.
The most famous Adam Segal is a cybersecurity scholar who specializes in Chinese hacking (I know that sounds fake but google him) and he easily dominates the first 5+ pages of search results. He is living out my dreams as the published author of three books (they all look boring though), has written for The Atlantic, and spends a lot of time speaking at events. He continues to pop up throughout the results, but there are a spattering of Adam Segals in all walks of life - a nephrologist in Massachusets (that’s a doctor who specializes in kidneys), a Minnesota high school track star, a Canadian sportswriter.
And here I am, momentarily on page seven of the results. I am dirt. I am nothing. I am a mere ant squirming unnoticed beneath the feet of the real Adam Segals of the world. Even among a tiny minority of human beings whose families were named Segal and whose parents happened to name a child Adam, I am but a chaotic subatomic particle ricocheting around a vast space beyond my comprehension.
While the main Adam Segal outclasses me on many fronts (for now- you watch your back sir), I at least managed to snag a better Twitter handle.
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Hey - this is issue #10 of Mashups Made to Order. I can’t believe it’s already been ten weeks, but I’m still having fun writing these! Thanks to everyone who has been reading and participating! And welcome to any new readers!